Research group WorldPop, based at the University of Southampton, is developing maps which can be used to predict the impact of climate change on the distribution of Earth’s population by the end of the century.
The researchers state that the data will highlight the locations likely to be most severely affected in the future. The maps will provide detailed pictures of humanity by 2100, including predicted population sizes, ages and genders.
WorldPop already produces data which is used by the UN and international governments to estimate the impact of climate change on Earth today.
Unequal impact
WorldPop director Andy Tatem, Professor of Spatial Demography and Epidemiology at Southampton, believes that climate change will have a fundamental impact on our environment, health and society. However, he adds that it will not be felt equally across the globe.
Our population data will be vital to understand and plan for the impact of future extreme weather and natural disasters, which have the potential to reshape settlements on earth.
Professor Andy Tatem, WorldPop director
Plans to develop the maps are supported by the Wellcome Trust, which is providing £5.6m of funding across the next 7 years.
WorldPop global assistance
This project continues WorldPop’s recent work to publish data which has been used by governments and charities to help remote communities and deploy emergency aid.
Its demographers have published around 45,000 datasets in the last decade using mobile phone data, satellite images, and census records. These have been used to improve vaccination rates among children in Afghanistan, and helped the UK government predict the spread of Covid-19 in the pandemic.
Felipe J Colón-González, Technology Lead at Wellcome, said: “Every year we are seeing different ways in which climate change is impacting global health, including the spread of climate-sensitive infectious diseases like dengue and the health risks caused by exposure to extreme heat.
We need to improve our understanding of what current and future warming levels hold, to be able to prepare and adapt to these challenges. WorldPop’s work aims to do exactly that.
Felipe J Colón-González, Technology Lead at the Wellcome Trust
“We’re excited to be supporting the team to continue developing this valuable digital resource, which will help all governments and international organisations make evidence-based decisions and allocate resources to best mitigate the health impacts of climate change as they prepare for the future.”
The high-resolution maps developed by WorldPop will be able to estimate population sizes across the world down to 100 metre by 100 metre grid cells for future scenarios.
The project, known as FuturePop, will include experts who study climate and health to make sure the data is accessible to the scientific community.
