Demographic Methods 2

Learning Outcomes

Learning Outcomes

Having successfully completed this module you will be able to:

• Apply the uniregional cohort-component method to compute your own population projection.
• Appreciate specific issues in population projections, such as uncertainty, small area, household and multistate projections;
• Carry out basic operations on matrices and vectors, and apply basic matrix algebra to population projection problems;
• Critically evaluate potential biases involved in analysing event history data, and apply selected methods to handle these;
• Construct a multiple decrement life table, eliminate or modify a cause of decrement, and calculate healthy life expectancy;
• Explain and assess the use of model schedules in demography, especially in the context of missing or incomplete data;
• Calculate a stable population, compute and analyse the basic features and measures of the associated population dynamics;
• Analyse and critically assess basic features of migration and different ways of including it in projections, including multiregional;
• Interpret and apply parity-specific fertility measures, and evaluate current debates regarding the measurement of fertility;

Subject Specific Practical Skills

Having successfully completed this module you will be able to:

• Demonstrate problem solving by using spreadsheets and open access demographic software for a range of demographic tasks.

Dependent and independent multiple decrement life tables and other advanced life table methods. Health expectancies. Introduction to event history analysis and birth histories; Kaplan-Meier estimator. Additional fertility measures: parity progression ratios and birth history measures. Fertility and reproduction estimated from cross-sectional data. Model age patterns and stable population theory, with applications to historical data and populations lacking complete vital statistics through indirect methods. Models for demographic estimation when data are incomplete or inaccurate. Cohort-component projections and other selected topics in population projections. Selected topic in migration modelling. Matrix population models and the Leslie matrix. Introduction to multistate demography.

The course will be taught by lectures and extended small-group practical classes. Depending on demand, paper or electronic copies of the lecture slides and class exercises may be handed out at the beginning of the course. Some indicative reading is given at the end of this outline, and further sources will be mentioned in lectures.

Summative

This is how we’ll formally assess what you have learned in this module.

Referral

This is how we’ll assess you if you don’t meet the criteria to pass this module.