While I agree with Stevan's analysis, there is another moral worth drawing.
Raw growth statistics (without cognizance of the year of publication) are
not very informative and often misleading.
We have no idea as to how many converts to HAL are uploading their old
papers, as compared with current researchers uploading their current papers.
Information on publications by year of publication would be very
interesting, Frank Laloe, and especially on how 2006 publications had grown
over 2006 and (soon) 2007.
Best wishes for the New Year.
Arthur Sale
> -----Original Message-----
> From: American Scientist Open Access Forum
[mailto:AMERICAN-SCIENTIST-OPEN-
> ACCESS-FORUM_at_LISTSERVER.SIGMAXI.ORG] On Behalf Of Stevan Harnad
> Sent: Tuesday, 26 December 2006 6:55 AM
> To: AMERICAN-SCIENTIST-OPEN-ACCESS-FORUM_at_LISTSERVER.SIGMAXI.ORG
> Subject: Re: [AMERICAN-SCIENTIST-OPEN-ACCESS-FORUM] Forthcoming OA
> Developments in France
>
> A fully linked version of this posting is available at:
> http://openaccess.eprints.org/index.php?/archives/187-guid.html
>
> Here are actual and projected growth rate statistics for France's
> national OA Repository, HAL, kindly supplied by HAL's architect and
> helmsman, Franck Laloe.
>
> http://openaccess.eprints.org/uploads/HALgrowth.gif
>
> France's annual research output is about 12,000 articles per month,
> so HAL's present spontaneous deposit rate of 1600 articles per month
> is about the same as the baseline of 15% for spontaneous (unmandated)
> self-archiving worldwide today.
>
> Spontaneous self-archiving in HAL seems to have begun in about 2002, so
> it is not clear whether the monthly deposit rate will continue to
> accelerate or was simply catching up with the baseline at which all
> other unmandated self-archiving rates have been idling for years now. If
> HAL's monthly deposit growth rate is indeed exponential, then HAL will
> reach 100% self-archiving in 5 years without a mandate; if it is a power
> curve ("puissance") it will take 15 years; if (like Arxiv) it is linear,
> it will take even longer. (Arxiv's power exponent has been unchangingly
> quadratic for 15 years, HAL's so far seems ternary)
>
> http://openaccess.eprints.org/index.php?/archives/185-guid.html
>
> > FRANCK LALOE: [translated from French] "There are also some small
> > research institutes in France which are already self-archiving
> > 100% of their research output, for example IN2P3, a component
> > (high-energy physics) of CNRS. A team of 3 documentalists deposits
> > 100% of IN2P3 article output in Hal-IN2P3, because on a small scale
> > this is possible. Another example is IFREMER, a small institute for
> > research on seas and oceans. They have a small, well-done archive
> > containing 100% of their output. As to my own field of research,
> > it has been self-archiving at 99% in ArXiv for a long time?"
>
> There seem to be two morals to this story: (1) Even a centralised
> national archiving system in a centralised country like France, cannot
> succeed without a national deposit mandate; (2) until France adopts a
> national deposit mandate, it too, like all other countries, will have to
> rely on individual institutional (and research-funder) mandates.
>
> Stevan Harnad
>
> Pertinent Prior AmSci Topic Threads:
>
> Are things otherwise in France? (began May, 1999)
> http://www.ecs.soton.ac.uk/~harnad/Hypermail/Amsci/subject.html#268
>
> INIST/CNRS : nouveautés du site Libre Accès (Dec 2004)
> http://www.ecs.soton.ac.uk/~harnad/Hypermail/Amsci/subject.html#4253
>
> France's INRIA Registers Commitment to Implement Berlin
> Declaration Self-Archiving Policy Recommendation (Mar 2005)
> http://www.ecs.soton.ac.uk/~harnad/Hypermail/Amsci/4475.html
>
> France's CNRS Registers Commitment to Implement Berlin Declaration
> Self-Archiving Policy Recommendation (May 2005)
> http://www.ecs.soton.ac.uk/~harnad/Hypermail/Amsci/subject.html#4447
>
> Helene Bosc et le progres en acces libre en france (Mar 2006)
> http://www.ecs.soton.ac.uk/~harnad/Hypermail/Amsci/subject.html#5244
>
> CNRS position on OA : new details (Jun 2006)
> http://www.ecs.soton.ac.uk/~harnad/Hypermail/Amsci/subject.html#5422
>
> Forthcoming OA Developments in France (Jun 2006)
> http://www.ecs.soton.ac.uk/~harnad/Hypermail/Amsci/subject.html#5434
>
> France's HAL, OAI interoperability, and Central vs Institutional
> Repositories (Oct 2006)
> http://www.ecs.soton.ac.uk/~harnad/Hypermail/Amsci/subject.html#5679
Received on Mon Dec 25 2006 - 23:26:09 GMT
