Re: Savings from Converting to On-Line-Only: 30%- or 70%+ ?

From: Murray Turoff <turoff_at_CONCENTRIC.NET>
Date: Mon, 31 Aug 1998 23:54:13 -0400

Elizabeth
   In the technological forecasting literature what you are refering to is a
submsitution process.
   for example normalize the market to 100% and then compare how much of that %
is being taken over by the new technology over time and you
get the classic logistic equation: e.g. water based paint for
oil based, synthetic rubber for natural, etc. transistors for vacumn tubes.
it is sort of amazing how good a fit there is and the same
curve fits some types of biological growth.
   if someone has the numbers for total market and how much of
it is paper and how much is electronic we would probably see the beginning of
such a substitution process taking place.
you have to get to a level of 10-15 percentage publication before any
reasonable forecast the time to go to 90% can be made.
  since right now many of the online jorunals are free, it is hard
to quantify total market. maybe total number of journals is a reasonable
start.
Received on Tue Aug 25 1998 - 19:17:43 BST